The Rosenberg Indicator?

  • Posted by
  • on September 9th, 2010

Reader(s) of my blog know that I am a fan of looking at broad market trends through the lens of Google Trends.  While I’m not sure how predictive it is, but I find the data interesting, fun, and relatively under-utilized.

I’ve been noticing a increase of David Rosenberg chatter recently, and decided to go to the proverbial video tape.

So is “David Rosenberg” as a Google Trend a contrarian indicator?  Perhaps.

We definitely saw a Rosenberg spike right around the 3/9/09 bottom and trough going into the beginning of the year.  Since then it has been spiking off the charts.  Also of note is that we saw a Rosenberg spike in mid 2008, which appeared to be a leading indicator.

Rosenberg’s is definitely a more interesting chart than that of Roubini, imho:

I think looking at pundit search data is interesting because I do believe that market turns are defined by a large amount of market participants seeking information to fulfill Confirmation Bias.  What are some other good pundits to look at?

The information in this blog post represents my own opinions and does not contain a recommendation for any particular security or investment. I or my affiliates may hold positions or other interests in securities mentioned in the Blog, please see my Disclaimer page for my full disclaimer.

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